Novosibirsk vs Bars Kazan: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Novosibirsk look shaky here, and the recent trajectory of both sides supports that. Bars Kazan sit higher in the table after playing one more game, and their head-to-head record against Novosibirsk has swung in their favour in the last few encounters.

Both teams have won two and lost three in their last five matches, but the quality of opposition matters. Bars Kazan beat Lada 3:2 at home and Salavat Ufa 4:3 away in their most recent outings. Novosibirsk's wins came against Khabarovsk 2:0 and Sochi 5:1, but they have also lost 0:3 to Nizhnekamsk and 2:5 to Yekaterinburg. The visitors have shown they can compete against mid-table sides and push higher-ranked opponents.

Over 16 meetings in recent years Novosibirsk have won 10 times to Bars Kazan's 6, but the pattern has shifted. In the last six matches the visitors have taken four victories. The most recent meeting ended 4:3 to Bars Kazan on 5 September, with Novosibirsk unable to hold their lead. That result followed a 3:2 home win for Novosibirsk in February, but since then the momentum has moved away from the hosts.

The stats point to 2.3 goals for Novosibirsk and 3 for Bars Kazan. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five games, and the 85% probability that both teams score points to an open match. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2, 2:3 and 1:2, with the latter two favouring the visitors. The 89% chance of three or more goals reinforces that this should be a high-scoring affair.

A draw suits the visitors in a different way — if Bars Kazan decide to manage the game rather than chase a win, this conclusion breaks down. Tactical shifts mid-match aren't captured in these numbers. If Novosibirsk find their shooting boots early and Bars Kazan struggle to contain them, the away side could find themselves chasing the game. The confidence figure of 54% reflects that margin of uncertainty.

The team news adds another layer. Novosibirsk lost Alexei Yakovlev to Torpedo in a swap deal, while Bars Kazan saw Kevin Hayes retire after five scoreless games. Neither situation should dictate the outcome, but the visitors have maintained their structure despite losing a key player.