Novosibirsk vs Khabarovsk: match prediction on 10 September 2026

Novosibirsk are the pick here, with a 43% confidence level attached to a home victory. The reasoning sits in the head-to-head record: they have won five of the last six meetings between these sides, including three of the four games played at this venue. Both clubs enter the fixture winless in the KHL this season, but the pattern of results over the past year points toward the hosts.

The recent form tells a mixed story. Novosibirsk have taken two wins and three defeats across their last five outings, scoring 16 goals and conceding 19. Their opening KHL match of the season ended in a 1:7 defeat away to Barys Astana on 7 September, followed by a 3:4 loss to Bars Kazan two days later. Khabarovsk show a slightly better balance in the same window, with three victories and two defeats, 14 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their most recent KHL outing was a 1:2 loss away to Magnitogorsk on 8 September.

The head-to-head pattern is the stronger signal. Novosibirsk won 4:2 at home on 21 December 2025, then took a 3:2 victory away on 30 December. The one loss at this ground came on 7 September 2025, and the other five meetings have gone the other way. That record gives the hosts a clear edge when the fixture comes to their ice.

The model expects a high-scoring encounter. Novosibirsk are projected to score 2.7 goals, Khabarovsk 2.6. The probability of a draw stands at 18%, while both teams to score sits at 87% and three or more goals at 90%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 6%, 3:2 at 6%, and 2:3 at 5%. The expected goals figures suggest a tight contest, but the model's weighting favours the home side by a narrow margin.

This conclusion stops holding if Khabarovsk's power play finds cohesion. Coach Andrievsky has acknowledged that the unit still lacks unity, and if that improves on the day, the visitors could capitalise on the model's narrow margin. A draw also suits Khabarovsk given their defensive record of conceding fewer goals than they score in recent matches, and if they control the tempo they could frustrate the hosts into a stalemate.