Novosibirsk vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: match prediction on 27 September 2026

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win. The visitors have won every one of the last 10 meetings, including the 5:2 friendly victory on 27 August, and sit top of the table with 7 wins from 9 matches while Novosibirsk have managed just 2 victories in 8 outings.

Novosibirsk's recent run offers little comfort. They lost 2:3 to Ak Bars at home on 24 September and 1:4 to Dinamo Minsk away two days later, adding to defeats against Nizhnekamsk 0:3 and Yekaterinburg 2:5 at home. The 5:1 win over Sochi on 20 September was their only positive result in five games, and they have now conceded 16 goals while scoring 10. The forward line has been further depleted by the transfer of Alexei Yakovlev to Torpedo for Alexander Yaremchuk on 21 September, and Evgeny Kuznetsov missed a recent game with a minor injury, though he is back in full training.

Lokomotiv have shown more resilience. They beat Vladivostok 2:1 away on 23 September and Avangard Omsk 2:1 at home on 18 September, following a 4:1 victory at Traktor Chelyabinsk on 15 September. Two defeats — 1:3 to Khabarovsk away and 0:5 to Barys Astana at home — have not dented their position at the summit. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 11 across those five matches.

The head-to-head record is stark. The most recent KHL encounter ended 3:2 to Lokomotiv at Novosibirsk on 8 January 2026, and before that 4:1 at Yaroslavl on 24 November 2025. Novosibirsk have not found a way through in any format, and the visitors will expect to control the tempo from the first period.

The model expects 1.8 goals for Novosibirsk and 2.8 for Lokomotiv, with an 80% chance both sides score and 84% for three or more goals in total. The most likely scoreline is 1:2 at 7%, followed by 2:2 at 6% and 1:3 at 6%. A draw suits the visitors. The conclusion stops holding if Novosibirsk score first and Lokomotiv fail to respond, or if an early injury removes a key defender from the visitors.