Novosibirsk vs Yekaterinburg: match prediction on 13 September 2026

Yekaterinburg 3-2 Novosibirsk

The model puts Yekaterinburg ahead on expected goals — 2.9 to 2.5 — and the head-to-head record backs that up. Avtomobilist have won five of the last six meetings between these sides, including a 7-1 demolition in October 2025. Novosibirsk's only victory in that span came in October 2024, and since then Yekaterinburg have pinned them back at every turn. Yekaterinburg won 2-0 in January 2026, 5-0 in December 2025, and Novosibirsk's 4-0 win in October 2024 stands as the sole exception in the last six encounters. Over the full 19-match history, Yekaterinburg hold 12 victories to Novosibirsk's 7. The visitors know how to exploit this fixture.

Form Gap

Novosibirsk have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches — 3 wins, 2 losses — scoring 16 goals and conceding 14. Yekaterinburg have managed just 3 points from the same span — 1 win, 4 losses — with 11 goals for and 18 against. Yekaterinburg's only victory in that period came 2-1 against Dynamo Moscow at home on 5 September; their other four results were defeats.

Model Expectations

The model backs both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (6%), 2-3 (6%), and 3-2 (5%). The expected goals figures suggest a high-scoring affair where Yekaterinburg's slight edge in offensive output proves decisive.

Conditions for Reversal

Novosibirsk's home advantage and their 3-2 win-loss record in their last 5 matches give them a platform to compete. If they start strongly and Yekaterinburg's defensive vulnerabilities — 18 goals conceded in 5 games — are exposed, the match could swing.