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Aalborg Volley Women
Prediction for Farum Women — Aalborg Volley Women
70%
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Oskarshamn IK vs Almtuna: match prediction on 16 October 2026
Oskarshamn IK
Almtuna
Prediction for
Slight edge: Oskarshamn IK
45%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
45%
1
18%
X
37%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Oct, 18:05- Оскарсхамн — 7. place, 0 points after 10 games (5 wins, 5 losses)
- Алмуна — 6. place, 0 points after 10 games (6 wins, 4 losses)
- Оскарсхамн, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Алмуна, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Оскарсхамн — 6, Алмуна — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Oskarshamn IK
LLLWW
2 wins · 3 losses
Almtuna
WLWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 9
6Oskarshamn IK
0Draw
3Almtuna
- 11 MarOskarshamn IK — Almtuna5:3
- 9 MarAlmtuna — Oskarshamn IK3:4
- 25 FebOskarshamn IK — Almtuna4:6
- 14 JanAlmtuna — Oskarshamn IK1:3
- 3 Dec 2025Oskarshamn IK — Almtuna2:4
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Oct, 18:05Oskarshamn IK win
I see Oskarshamn IK taking the points at home despite a poor run of form. The head-to-head record is the deciding factor here: they have won four of the last six meetings against Almtuna, including a 5:3 victory in March. Their recent struggles—12 goals scored and 21 conceded across five matches—suggest vulnerability, but the historical edge on their own ice carries weight.
Almtuna arrive with better momentum. Oskarshamn sit seventh with five wins and five losses. The visitors lost 2:4 at home to AIK on 14 October and beat Nybro Vikings IF 4:2 at home eleven days earlier. Their form is steadier, but they have yet to find a rhythm away from their rink.
The model expects both sides to score, with an 87% probability and a 90% chance of three or more goals in total. Oskarshamn's expected goals sit at 2.8, Almtuna's at 2.6. The most likely scorelines are 2:2 (6%), 3:2 (6%) and 2:3 (5%). A draw probability of 18% is low, which pushes the balance toward a decisive result. The model does not account for injuries or tactical shifts—it runs on past scoring patterns alone.
Oskarshamn's home advantage matters more than the current table position. They have beaten Almtuna twice at home this season: 5:3 in March and 2:4 in February. The visitors won away at Almtuna 4:6 in February, but that was a different fixture. The hosts have lost four of five, yet two of those defeats came against strong sides—AIK and Leksand—and their only win came away at Nybro Vikings IF 3:2.
This conclusion stops holding if Almtuna replicate their away form from the start of the season. They won 7:4 away at Vimmerby HC on 2 October and lost 0:3 away at Kalmar on 9 October. The difference between those two results is the margin, not the outcome. If they can match the intensity of the Vimmerby performance without the defensive collapse seen against Kalmar, the visitors take the game. A draw would also undermine the prediction, given Almtuna's tendency to grind out results away from home.