Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Poruba HC U20 vs Mountfield HK U20: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Poruba HC U20
Mountfield HK U20
Prediction for
Win: Poruba HC U20
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
17%
X
37%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 14:33- Поруба U20 — 9. place, 0 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Маунтфилд HK U20 — 14. place, 0 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
- Поруба U20, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Маунтфилд HK U20, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Поруба U20 — 2, Маунтфилд HK U20 — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Poruba HC U20
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Mountfield HK U20
WLLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 4
2Poruba HC U20
0Draw
2Mountfield HK U20
- 19 FebPoruba HC U20 — Mountfield HK U203:6
- 24 JanMountfield HK U20 — Poruba HC U205:8
- 20 Dec 2025Poruba HC U20 — Mountfield HK U204:2
- 5 Dec 2025Mountfield HK U20 — Poruba HC U202:1
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 14:33Poruba HC U20 win is the proposed outcome, with 47% confidence. The model's expected goals figure of 3.2 for the home side against 2.9 for Mountfield HK U20 sits alongside a 91% probability that both teams score, and that combination points to a narrow home victory rather than a draw. The three most likely scorelines—3:2, 3:3, 2:2—all cluster around high-scoring affairs.
Both sides have played four matches in the ELJ so far and sit on 0 points, but the win-loss records tell a different story. Poruba holds two victories and two defeats, while Mountfield has managed only one win from three losses. The gap in recent form is wider when you look at the last five games across all competitions: Poruba has won two and lost three, Mountfield one win and four defeats. The home side has also scored more goals in that span—15 to 12—while conceding the same total, 19 each.
The head-to-head record over the past season is evenly balanced with two wins apiece, but the results have been high-scoring and volatile. Mountfield HK U20 beat Poruba 6:3 in February, then Poruba responded with an 8:5 win in January. Before that, Poruba won 4:2 at home and Mountfield edged a 2:1 victory in December. None of those four matches ended in a draw, and three of them featured five or more goals for the losing side.
The model's 94% probability of three or more goals in this fixture aligns with the pattern in the recent meetings. Both teams have shown a tendency to trade blows rather than grind out tight results. Poruba's away form this season includes a 4:2 win at Karlovy Vary and a 1:3 loss at Litvínov, while Mountfield's recent away matches have produced a 3:4 defeat at České Budějovice and a 5:6 loss at Jihlava. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five outings.
No team news has been published for either side in the last 45 days. If the match follows the same pattern as the four previous encounters, where both sides attack and concede freely, Poruba's slightly better win record and higher expected goals output give them the edge.