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Rubin Tyumen vs Dizel: match prediction on 15 October 2026
Rubin Tyumen
Dizel
Prediction for
Slight edge: Rubin Tyumen
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
21%
X
32%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 15:05- Рубин Тюмень — 18. place, 0 points after 12 games (7 wins, 5 losses)
- Дизель — 21. place, 0 points after 13 games (5 wins, 8 losses)
- Рубин Тюмень, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Дизель, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Рубин Тюмень — 3, Дизель — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Rubin Tyumen
WLWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Dizel
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 8
3Rubin Tyumen
0Draw
5Dizel
- 11 Dec 2025Rubin Tyumen — Dizel4:2
- 29 Nov 2025Dizel — Rubin Tyumen6:3
- 20 Jan 2025Dizel — Rubin Tyumen3:1
- 3 Nov 2024Rubin Tyumen — Dizel4:1
- 9 Jan 2024Rubin Tyumen — Dizel2:3
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 15:05Rubin Tyumen are tipped to win, with 65% confidence, after four victories in their last five matches while Dizel have managed only two. The visitors have lost three of their past five games and are playing away, where they have conceded heavily in recent encounters.
Form under pressure
Rubin Tyumen have taken 12 points from their last five matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding 14. Their home record in that window is strong: victories against Tambov 3:2 and Buran Voronezh 4:3, plus a narrow win over HC Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk 4:3. They lost 3:4 away to Omskie Krylia and won 3:2 away at Kurhan.
Dizel have collected just 6 points from five matches, with 10 goals for and 10 against. They lost 3:4 away to Kurhan and 2:3 away to Omskie Krylia. Their home results were mixed: a 3:1 win over Dyn. Altay, a 2:0 victory against Krasnoyarsk, but a goalless defeat to Metallurg Novokuznetsk. The away form is the concern.
Historical context
Over seven meetings in recent years, Dizel hold a slight edge with four wins to Rubin Tyumen's three. The most recent fixture ended 4:2 to Rubin Tyumen at home in December 2025. Before that, Dizel won 6:3 at home in November 2025. The head-to-head has produced high-scoring affairs: 1:9, 4:1, 2:3, 3:1, 6:3, 4:2.
Model expectations
The model predicts Rubin Tyumen to score 2.4 goals and Dizel 2.0. A draw is calculated at 21%, both teams to score at 79%, and three or more goals at 81%. The most probable scorelines are 2:2 (7%), 2:1 (7%), and 1:1 (7%). The model suggests a tight contest with goals from both sides.
Where the prediction breaks
This falls apart if Dizel match their away record from November 2025, when they won 6:3 at home against Rubin Tyumen. A victory there would shift momentum significantly. Alternatively, if Rubin Tyumen repeat their away loss to Omskie Krylia 3:4, the confidence drops. The home advantage is the foundation; without it, the edge disappears.