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SaiPa vs JYP: match prediction on 8 October 2026
SaiPa
JYP
Prediction for
Win: SaiPa
50%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
50%
1
16%
X
34%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 7 Oct, 16:45- Саипа — 3. place, 0 points after 10 games (7 wins, 3 losses)
- ЙЫП — 4. place, 0 points after 8 games (6 wins, 2 losses)
- Саипа, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- ЙЫП, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 16 games, Саипа — 9, 1 draws, ЙЫП — 6
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
SaiPa
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
JYP
WLLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 26
12SaiPa
1Draw
13JYP
- 14 AugSaiPa — JYP3:2
- 21 JanSaiPa — JYP2:3
- 20 Dec 2025JYP — SaiPa1:2
- 28 Nov 2025JYP — SaiPa3:7
- 25 Feb 2025JYP — SaiPa4:5
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 7 Oct, 16:45SaiPa to win. The home side has dominated this fixture for years, and the model expects a high-scoring affair where their edge at home tells.
Both sides arrive with identical records in their last five games — three wins and two defeats, no draws between them. SaiPa have netted 14 goals while conceding 13, JYP 13 for and 12 against. The numbers look nearly identical, but SaiPa have already played ten matches this season compared to JYP's eight. That extra experience shows in their league position: SaiPa sit third after ten outings, JYP fourth after eight. The points column reads oddly — both teams are listed with zero points despite their win-loss records — but the win tallies speak clearly enough.
Head-to-head tells a different story. Over sixteen meetings in recent years SaiPa have won nine, JYP six, with just one draw. More recently, SaiPa have been particularly strong at home. They beat JYP 6:3 in February 2025, then 3:2 in a club friendly in August 2026.
JYP have played every one of their last eight recorded matches away from home, while SaiPa have mixed home and away games. That matters less than the Champions Hockey League fixture SaiPa played on 6 October — a 3:1 win away to Graz 99ers. That creates fatigue, but SaiPa won that game and still delivered a 3:2 home victory over Jokerit two days later. They have absorbed the extra fixture without losing momentum.
The model puts SaiPa at 3.3 expected goals and JYP at 2.8. The draw probability sits at 17%, both teams to score at 91%, and three or more goals at 94%. The three most likely scorelines are 3:2, 3:3, and 2:2 — each at 5%. Those figures suggest a tight contest, but the home advantage and historical record push the balance toward SaiPa. A 3:2 victory fits the model's expectations and the pattern of recent encounters.
A draw would break this conclusion. Given how JYP have been playing — all away, all competitive — they are capable of grinding out a result. If the game goes to penalties or if SaiPa's Champions Hockey League fixture takes more out of them than expected, the outcome shifts.