Andebol 1
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Almaz
Prediction for
Win: Almaz
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 3
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 5 Sep, 17:02Almaz to Win Away Against SKA-Akademiya
Almaz are clear favourites for the 7 September MHL fixture. That confidence holds as long as SKA-Akademiya does not dramatically improve on their recent defensive record.
SKA-Akademiya have won two and lost three in five friendlies, conceding 19 goals. A 5-3 win over Dynamo Moscow was an exception to a pattern of defensive leaks.
Almaz have won three of five, netting 15 and conceding 11. They beat Lokomotiv-76 4-1 at home but lost 2-5 to the same side away.
The head-to-head record runs entirely in Almaz's favour. In two meetings this season, the visitors have won both times, scoring 9 goals compared to SKA-Akademiya's 4. The most recent encounter ended 4-1 to Almaz in January, and before that the hosts lost 5-3 in October. SKA-Akademiya have yet to beat their opponents this season.
Stats point to a high-scoring game, with BTTS probability sitting at 90% and 2-3 or 2-4 the most likely scorelines. The draw probability is just 15%, which fits with Almaz's superior recent form and their historical dominance in this fixture.
Almaz are listed second in the MHL table ahead of the season opener.
The pick breaks if the hosts tighten up. The visitors have scored freely in head-to-head meetings, but if the hosts can limit them to one or two goals, the model's projections shift. An early goal for SKA-Akademiya could also change the dynamic, forcing Almaz to chase the game rather than control it.