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Sochi vs Kunlun: match prediction on 19 October 2026
Sochi
Kunlun
Prediction for
Win: Kunlun
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
27%
1
16%
X
57%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 18 Oct, 17:45- Сочи — 22. place, 0 points after 15 games (3 wins, 12 losses)
- Сочи, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Кунлун, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 23 games, Сочи — 8, Кунлун — 15
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Sochi
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Kunlun
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 29
8Sochi
0Draw
21Kunlun
- 28 SepKunlun — Sochi4:1
- 30 JanKunlun — Sochi5:2
- 29 JanKunlun — Sochi1:2
- 26 JanSochi — Kunlun2:6
- 15 Nov 2025Sochi — Kunlun4:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 18 Oct, 17:45Kunlun Red Dragons win on 19 October. The visitors have won four of the last six meetings, and their recent form—two wins from five—outpaces Sochi's one. The model expects Kunlun to score 3.2 goals to Sochi's 2.4, a gap that widens when you consider Sochi have conceded 21 in their last five matches.
Sochi are 22nd after 15 games, with three wins and 12 defeats. They have won one of their last five, losing four, and scored just eight goals while conceding 21. Their most recent outing ended 3:6 at home against Lokomotiv Yaroslavl on 17 October. The only bright spot in that run was a 3:2 away victory over Bars Kazan on 12 October. Sochi coach Andrei Mironov was under pressure after an eighth loss in nine games, according to reports from 29 September.
Kunlun have been more competitive. Two wins and three losses in five matches, with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded. They beat Lada 5:0 away on 5 October and Dynamo Moscow 3:2 on the road on 7 October. Their last three matches were all home defeats—against Bars Kazan, Tractor Chelyabinsk, and Dinamo Minsk—but the away wins show they can perform when it matters.
The head-to-head record favours Kunlun decisively. In the last six meetings they have won four, with Sochi taking two. Kunlun won 4:1 at home on 28 September and 5:2 in January. Sochi's only recent success was a 4:2 home win in November 2025.
The model expects 3.2 goals for Kunlun and 2.4 for Sochi. A draw is 17% likely. Both teams to score comes in at 87%, and three or more goals 92%. The most probable scoreline is 2:3 at 6%, followed by 2:2 at 5% and 1:3 at 5%. Kunlun's attacking output over Sochi's defence suggests the visitors take the points.
Gusev's arrival at Sochi on 2 October adds a veteran presence, but the forward's impact remains unproven in this fixture. Kunlun president Ilya Kovalchuk mentioned a possible Shanghai relocation for 2027 or 2028, which could affect squad stability, but the players on ice tonight are the same ones who beat Lada and Dynamo Moscow.