Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Toros Neftekamsk vs Zvezda Moscow: match prediction on 11 September 2026
Toros Neftekamsk
Zvezda Moscow
Prediction for
Win: Toros Neftekamsk
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
18%
X
35%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 15:00- Торос Нефтекамск — 9. place, 0 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
- Звезда Москва — 27. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 losses)
- Торос Нефтекамск, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Звезда Москва, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Торос Нефтекамск — 5, Звезда Москва — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Toros Neftekamsk
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Zvezda Moscow
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 14
8Toros Neftekamsk
0Draw
6Zvezda Moscow
- 19 Dec 2025Zvezda Moscow — Toros Neftekamsk3:2
- 7 Dec 2025Toros Neftekamsk — Zvezda Moscow3:2
- 12 Mar 2025Zvezda Moscow — Toros Neftekamsk6:0
- 3 Sep 2024Toros Neftekamsk — Zvezda Moscow1:2
- 13 Dec 2023Toros Neftekamsk — Zvezda Moscow4:1
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 15:00Toros Neftekamsk to win, 65% confidence. The hosts have won two of three league games while Zvezda Moscow have lost every one of theirs, and the recent head-to-head record shows Toros winning four of the last six meetings.
Toros Neftekamsk sit fourth in the table with two victories and one defeat from three matches. Their last five games read three wins and two losses, scoring 14 goals and conceding 12. They opened the VHL season with a 2:0 home win over Dinamo St. Petersburg and followed with a 5:3 victory against SKA-VMF St. Petersburg before a narrow 1:2 home loss to Perm.
Zvezda Moscow occupy 30th place. Three matches played, three losses, zero points. Their last five results show one win and four defeats, with 8 goals scored and 17 conceded. They lost 0:3 away at Izhevsk and 2:7 away at Olympia in their two most recent VHL fixtures. The one victory came in a friendly, a 4:1 win away at Krasnoyarsk on 14 August.
There are six recorded encounters between these sides. Toros Neftekamsk won four of them, Zvezda Moscow two. The most recent meeting was a 3:2 home victory for Zvezda on 19 December 2025, but since then Toros have not lost at home to them. On 07 December 2025 Toros won 3:2 at home, and before that they claimed 4:1 and 3:2 victories at home in December 2023 and October 2023 respectively.
Toros Neftekamsk average 4.67 goals per game in their last five matches, while Zvezda Moscow average 3.40 goals per game conceded. The draw probability sits at 18%, while both teams to score stands at 84% and three or more goals at 87%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 7%, 3:2 at 6%, and 2:1 at 6%. The model does not account for injuries or fixture congestion, but the goal output figures align with what we have seen from Toros in their last five matches — they are scoring consistently but have a leaky defence.
Where it could go wrong
A draw suits the visitors given how they tend to run the clock down, and that is the main threat to this prediction. Zvezda have shown they can be competitive in tight matches — their 3:2 win in December 2025 proves they can edge games — and if they manage to frustrate Toros and force a stalemate, the prediction fails. An early goal for Zvezda would also shift the dynamic, forcing Toros to chase and potentially leaving them exposed on the counter.