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Zvezda Moscow vs Orsk: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Zvezda Moscow
Orsk
Prediction for
Win: Zvezda Moscow
53%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
53%
1
18%
X
29%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 16:33- Звезда Москва — 24. place, 0 points after 5 games (1 wins, 4 losses)
- Орск — 17. place, 0 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Звезда Москва, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Орск, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Звезда Москва — 5, Орск — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Zvezda Moscow
LLWLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Orsk
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 15
10Zvezda Moscow
0Draw
5Orsk
- 9 JanOrsk — Zvezda Moscow1:2
- 16 Nov 2025Zvezda Moscow — Orsk1:2
- 14 Feb 2025Orsk — Zvezda Moscow0:1
- 7 Oct 2024Zvezda Moscow — Orsk2:3
- 14 Aug 2024Zvezda Moscow — Orsk3:4
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 16:33Zvezda Moscow to win. The hosts have won five of the nine meetings between these sides, and the model projects them to score 2.6 goals against Orsk's 2, which tips the balance despite their recent struggles.
Zvezda Moscow have taken just 3 points from their last five games, winning once and losing four times, with 10 goals scored and 19 conceded. Their most recent outing ended 1:2 away at Perm on 13 September. Orsk look sharper, with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches, netting 18 goals while conceding only 9. They beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 7:0 on 16 September and SKA-VMF 3:2 two days earlier.
The table positions reflect this divide. Orsk sit ninth after four matches with two wins and two losses. Zvezda Moscow languish 25th after five games, one victory and four defeats.
Historical edge
Head-to-head history favours the hosts. The most recent encounter was on 9 January 2026, when Orsk lost 1:2 away. At home on 16 November 2025, Zvezda Moscow fell 1:2 to Orsk, showing the matches remain competitive even when the hosts have the upper hand historically.
Model projections
The statistical model expects Zvezda Moscow to score 2.6 goals and Orsk to find 2, giving the home side a slight edge. The draw probability sits at 18%, while both teams to score comes in at 80% and three or more goals at 84%. The most likely scorelines are 2:1 at 7%, 2:2 at 7%, and 3:1 at 6%.
They have conceded just 9 goals in 5 matches, averaging under 2 per game, while Zvezda Moscow have let in 19 in their last five. If Orsk keep another clean sheet or Zvezda fail to convert their expected 2.6 goals into actual ones, the prediction collapses.