North Harbour beat Otago 32:21 in the NPC on Saturday. The hosts moved up a place in the table while the visitors slipped. It was a result that settled the debate about who was playing better rugby between the two.
By then the visitors had already looked vulnerable. They'd shipped 55 points in their last outing against Tasmann, and that kind of defensive frailty showed up early. North Harbour's attack found rhythm quickly, stringing together phases that kept the visitors pinned back.
And here's the thing — this was the prediction I made beforehand. Home win, 55 per cent confidence. It came through because the visitors carried their defensive issues into Wellington. The hosts were second to nothing at the breakdown, winning the mentality battle before the first try.
To be fair, both sides have been scoring freely this season. North Harbour averaged 36 points across their last five matches, while Otago hit 43. But the hosts' recent form against Canterbury and Hawke's Bay suggests they're building something. The visitors, meanwhile, have dropped points in two of their last three.
The gap between them narrows to just one point now. North Harbour sit on 31, Otago on 32. That's tight enough to matter come the final rounds. Every match from here on becomes a semi-final in all but name.
By then, if this pattern holds, the top three could shift entirely. Three matches remain for each side, and momentum matters more than position. North Harbour will want to keep this run going. Otago need the points badly.
