The Rays beat the Astros 3-1 in a regular-season Major League Baseball game on Thursday evening. We had backed the visitors with 56 per cent confidence, but the prediction didn't come off. And here's the thing — the home side's recent form had been anything but convincing.
Before this match the Rays had lost 1-3 to the Braves on Wednesday, but before that they'd won 7-2 and 7-1 in consecutive games against the same opponents. The visitors came in with mixed results — a 2-1 win over the Phillies on Wednesday followed by a 7-11 defeat in the game before that. To be fair, neither side had settled into a rhythm.
The result shifts the balance in the American League East race, though the table doesn't tell the whole story. The Rays had ended a barren spell against divisional opposition, while the Astros found themselves on the back foot after another inconsistent outing. By then the momentum had clearly swung.
We'd given the Astros the edge on paper, but matches don't always follow the spreadsheets. The Rays worked the channels better when it mattered, and that's what separated them on the night. The prediction might have looked sound, but the game played out differently.