Argentina vs Australia: match prediction on 5 September 2026

Australia win, 65% confidence

The visitors carry momentum from a 27:21 victory seven days ago and have won four of their last five matches, while Argentina have lost four of five. The model expects Argentina to score 29.9 and Australia 27, but recent results show a different picture. Australia's attack has been prolific—201 points in five games compared to Argentina's 114—while their defense has been solid, conceding only 122.

Home advantage meets away form

Argentina host at home but their recent record offers little comfort. They beat Wales 35:21 at the start of July but have since lost to England, South Africa, the USA, and most recently Australia. The 114 points scored across five matches average 22.8 per game, while conceding 24.2. Their only victory came against Wales in the Nations Championship, a team Australia beat 57:10 in July.

Australia's run has been more consistent. They defeated Japan twice in August, beat Italy 57:10, and only lost to France 26:42 in their Nations Championship opener. The 201 points scored averages 40.2 per game, nearly double Argentina's output.

The rematch factor

Australia made nine changes for this second Test, which could disrupt any cohesion they built in the first meeting. That first match ended 27:21 to Australia. The head-to-head record shows three wins apiece across six meetings, but Australia have won the last two encounters, including the friendly just days ago.

The model's expectation of 29.9 for Argentina and 27 for Australia suggests a close contest, but those figures don't account for Argentina's current slump or Australia's attacking form. The 0% draw probability in the model aligns with the trend—neither side has drawn in their last five matches.

Conditions that would break this prediction

A draw suits Argentina—they need something from this match and could adopt a conservative approach. Given how they run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat. Australia's nine changes risk disjointed play, especially if the starting wingers are among those rotated.

What the numbers don't show

Argentina's scoring has been spread across matches—24 against England, 35 against Wales, 21 against Australia. Their attack hasn't completely disappeared, but the consistency has vanished. Australia's attack has been more reliable, scoring 56, 35, 57, and 26 in their four victories.

Australia win.