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Fiji vs Japan: match prediction on 19 September 2026
Fiji
Japan
Prediction for
Win: Japan
71%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
29%
1
71%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 01:24- Фиджи, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Япония, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Фиджи — 3, Япония — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Fiji
LLLWL
1 win · 4 losses
Japan
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 3
3Fiji
0Draw
0Japan
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 01:24Fiji — Japan Preview: Japan Edge Expected Despite Fiji's Head-to-Head Dominance
Fiji host Japan on 19 September. Recent form points to a Japanese victory despite a perfect head-to-head record.
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Fiji have won all three meetings between these sides, but the model sees Japan as the stronger side going into this Pacific Nations Cup fixture. The head-to-head record is striking: 41:17, 33:27, and 35:12 in Fiji's favour across 2023, 2024, and 2025. Yet Japan's recent form suggests a shift. They've won two of their last five matches, including a 63:14 demolition of USA and a 57:12 win over Canada, both at home. Fiji have won only one of their last five, that being a 45:29 victory over Canada on 12 September.
The projection puts Japan on 36 and Fiji on 27. The difference of 9.3 points suggests Japan are the favourites.
Fiji's recent losses have been heavy. They conceded 73 to England, 45 to the Reds, and 39 to Wales. Their single win came against Canada, who Japan also beat convincingly. Japan's losses have been less severe: 56:17 and 35:32 against Australia, 42:15 to France. The goal difference tells a story—Fiji are -101 over five matches, Japan are +25.
The head-to-head record would normally point to Fiji, but recent form outweighs history. Japan's attacking output has been stronger: 184 points in five matches compared to Fiji's 118. Their two wins came with an average margin of 37 points, while Fiji's single victory was by 16.
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The match takes place on 19 September 2026 at 10:05 UTC.