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Northland vs Counties Manukau: match prediction on 26 September 2026

Bunnings NPC Semenoff Stadium Whangārei Miss Match page
Northland Counties Manukau

Prediction for

Win: Northland

68%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

68% 1
32% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 24 Sep, 03:08

Northland sit second in the Bunnings NPC table with 32 points from eight matches, while Counties Manukau occupy 13th place on 12 points. The disparity is reflected in their records: Northland have won six of their eight games, losing two, whereas Counties Manukau have secured only two victories in the same period, suffering six defeats. Neither side has played out a draw in the standings.

Northland’s recent form has been strong, recording four wins and one loss in their last five outings, scoring 184 points and conceding 124. Their results include a 52-28 victory away at Wellington and a 34-17 home win against Waikato. Counties Manukau, by contrast, have won two and lost three in their last five matches, scoring 159 points and conceding 197, including heavy defeats to Otago and Auckland.

The two sides have met once in the Bunnings NPC era, with Counties Manukau winning 25-14 at home in September 2024. Before that, in the Mitre 10 Cup in 2020, Northland won 24-15 away. Pre-match projections suggested Northland would score 39.1 points and Counties Manukau 22.7, a gap consistent with the teams’ current league positions. A pick for a Northland victory was priced at 68 per cent confidence.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 24 Sep, 03:08
  • Нортленд — 2. place, 32 points after 8 games (6 wins, 2 losses)
  • Каунтис Манукау — 13. place, 12 points after 8 games (2 wins, 6 losses)
  • Нортленд, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Каунтис Манукау, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Head-to-head: 1 games, Нортленд — 0, Каунтис Манукау — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Northland WLWWW 4 wins · 1 loss
Counties Manukau WLLWW 3 wins · 2 losses

Head to head 2

1Northland 0Draw 1Counties Manukau
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

No bookmaker data

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+