Otago vs Hawke's Bay: match prediction on 10 October 2026

Hawke's Bay defeated Otago 35–24 at their first meeting of the 2026 season, maintaining a perfect record against Otago over the last three years. Hawke's Bay arrived in Dunedin carrying four losses from their previous five fixtures, while Otago sat third in the Bunnings NPC standings with 37 points from ten matches. The result tightened the gap between two sides separated by only four points in the table.

The scoreline reflected a dominant performance by Hawke's Bay, who rallied from a solitary win in their last five games to overturn their recent defeat to Otago at the same venue. On 4 September, Hawke's Bay had beaten Otago 35–24 at home, and they replicated that exact margin in the reverse fixture. Otago's recent form included three victories in their last five outings, including a 45–42 win over Auckland earlier in October, but they failed to match the visitors' output.

Statistical models had projected a higher-scoring affair, estimating 33.5 points for Otago and 27.9 for Hawke's Bay, yet the final tally fell short of those expectations. The forecast carried a 0% probability for a draw or for both teams to score, which aligned with the one-sided nature of the contest.

The victory moves Hawke's Bay closer to the top four, though they remain in sixth place with 33 points. Otago's setback halts their momentum after a strong run of form, dropping them further from the playoff positions.