Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Tasman vs Bay of Plenty: match prediction on 24 September 2026
Tasman
Bay of Plenty
Prediction for
Win: Tasman
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
57%
1
43%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 08:22- Тасман — 8. place, 22 points after 8 games (4 wins, 4 losses)
- Бей-оф-Пленти — 9. place, 22 points after 8 games (4 wins, 4 losses)
- Тасман, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Бей-оф-Пленти, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Тасман — 1, Бей-оф-Пленти — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Tasman
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Bay of Plenty
WLLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 7
4Tasman
0Draw
3Bay of Plenty
- 11 Oct 2025Bay of Plenty — Tasman27:7
- 3 Aug 2025Bay of Plenty — Tasman37:7
- 31 Aug 2024Tasman — Bay of Plenty34:15
- 1 Oct 2023Bay of Plenty — Tasman41:12
- 8 Aug 2021Bay of Plenty — Tasman14:27
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 08:22Bay of Plenty to win
The visitors have dominated this fixture recently and arrive with better momentum, but the model expects Tasman to score 29.2 points.
Bay of Plenty have won four of the last six meetings between these sides, including two emphatic victories in 2025 — 27:7 and 37:7 at home. Tasman's only wins came at their own ground, 34:15 in August 2024 and 19:10 in November 2020. Bay dominate at home. Tasman grind it out away. This fixture is played at the visitors' venue, which tilts the balance in Tasman's favour.
Both teams sit on 22 points from eight matches with identical records of four wins and four losses, separated by only one place in the table. Tasman are eighth, Bay of Plenty ninth. The points gap is negligible, but the recent trajectory differs. Bay of Plenty have won three of their last five — a 32:17 victory over Hawke's Bay and narrow wins against Auckland and Taranaki — while Tasman have managed only two victories from five, including heavy defeats by Otago and Northland.
The model expects Tasman to score 29.2 points and Bay of Plenty 26.4, yet assigns a 0% probability to a draw. That combination suggests the model sees a decisive result. The model overrates Tasman's attack. The higher figure for Tasman reflects their capacity for big scores — 46:17 against Southland and 42:28 over Wellington in recent weeks — but also their vulnerability, particularly the 33:55 loss to Otago.
Bay of Plenty's attack has been less prolific, scoring 106 points across five matches compared to Tasman's 153, but they have been more consistent. Their 32:17 win over Hawke's Bay at home shows they can control games when the conditions suit. Tasman's recent home form has been mixed: they beat Wellington comfortably but lost narrowly to Auckland 22:24, suggesting they can edge close contests but not always dominate them.
Bay of Plenty are the likely winners. The head-to-head record at this venue, combined with their superior recent form, gives them the edge. The model's higher expectation for Tasman may reflect their higher-scoring record, but Bay of Plenty have proven they can close out matches — their 22:19 away win at Auckland demonstrates that capability.
Back Bay of Plenty to win.
Confidence: 60%