Tasman vs Wellington: match prediction on 5 September 2026

Tasman win. 75% confidence. The gap between the two sides is stark: Tasman have taken nine points from their last five fixtures while Wellington have collected none, and the model expects Tasman to score 39 points to Wellington's 27.1.

Tasman's form has been volatile but productive. They beat Southland 46:17 at home, but lost to Northland 10:20 and Hawke's Bay 19:50 on the road. They have scored 156 points and conceded 151 across those five matches. They average 31.2 points scored, 30.2 conceded.

Wellington are in freefall. Five defeats in a row, zero points, and a goal difference of 128 for against 240 conceded. Their heaviest loss came away at Otago, 22:61, but even their narrowest defeat was by three points against Auckland, 31:34. They have lost at home to Counties Manukau, North Harbour, and Hawke's Bay, and lost away to Auckland and Otago.

Tasman have won three of the last five meetings, Wellington two, but the results vary wildly. Tasman beat them 34:22 in 2021 and 28:15 in 2024, while Wellington won 7:0 at home in 2023 and 25:19 away in 2022. The most recent meeting was a Tasman victory, 28:15.

This conclusion stops holding if Wellington find a way to contain Tasman's attack while keeping their own defence from collapsing. If Wellington manage to keep Tasman below 39 points while adding to their own tally, the prediction fails. Wellington must score 28 to cover the spread.