Wellington — Counties Manukau: match prediction

# Wellington vs Counties Manukau: Two Struggling Sides Meet in Bunnings NPC

Wellington look to break their five-match losing streak when they host Counties Manukau, though history suggests the home side has the edge despite both teams being winless in their last five Bunnings NPC fixtures. The prediction is for a 34-31 win for Wellington, a narrow margin that reflects how evenly matched two struggling sides can be when form is equally poor.

Wellington's recent results tell a story of defensive frailty. They conceded 227 points across five matches while scoring just 119, averaging 45.4 points against per game. Their heaviest defeat came away at Otago, 22-61, and they lost 7-47 at home to North Harbour. Counties Manukau have been similarly found wanting, conceding 197 points in five games while managing only 86 of their own. Their worst result was the 5-20 loss to Taranaki at home, a match where they failed to reach double figures.

Their most recent encounter ended 29-14 at home in October 2024, but Counties Manukau's 51-12 victory at their own ground in September 2024 showed this rivalry can produce unexpected results. Wellington typically dominate at home, while Counties Manukau can mount serious challenges when playing on their own turf.

Neither side has shown the ability to close out games effectively, which could mean either team might find themselves trailing late in matches.

I predict a Wellington victory, but this only holds if the home side can impose their physical game early. Counties Manukau's recent 51-point haul against Wellington shows they possess the attacking capability to win if they get momentum. Wellington need to avoid the pattern of their recent matches where they've struggled to maintain leads and have conceded heavily in the second half.