Rugby predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9212 / 15559

9212hit

6347missed

1285Pending

15559checked predictions

Checked forecasts

Currie Cup Hit

Sharks

Bulls

28 Aug, 18:15

Prediction for Sharks — Bulls

Win: Sharks

67%probability

Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

Model statistics

9212 hit
6347 missed
1285 Pending

Model calibration

50–59% 55% 2901 / 5196
60–69% 69% 2388 / 3440
70–79% 73% 1726 / 2346
80%+ 69% 610 / 875

How forecasts are made

We analyse team form, match statistics, head-to-head record and line-ups.
The model estimates the probability of each outcome (1X2).
A forecast is fixed before kick-off and is never changed afterwards.
Accuracy counts only finished events.

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.