Kiryat Yam SC — Ironi Modi'in: 3:2, Liga Leumit

Kiryat Yam saw off Ironi Modiin 3:2 in the sixth round of the Liga Leumit on Thursday evening. We had called for a home win at 52 per cent confidence, and the result went our way. By then you learn to trust the numbers, even when the match itself tells a different story.

The visitors had more possession at 54 per cent and more attacks, 95 to 85. They also had more shots on target, seven to eleven for the hosts. But the difference came in conversion — Kiryat Yam were sharper when it mattered, and that price has gone up for Modiin if they want to climb away from fourteenth.

And here's the thing about these mid-table clashes. The hosts have three wins and three losses from six games, sitting level on points with several sides around them. Modiin have only one victory and two draws, five points from the top half. This was a game that could have swung either way, and the home side held their nerve.

The statistics tell you something about the shape of things. Kiryat Yam took six corners, Modiin six as well. The visitors had 28 throw-ins to 12 — they were trying to pin them back from wide areas, but the hosts switched off at the back only briefly. Two yellow cards each, no reds, and the game ended without major incident beyond the scoreline.

What matters now is the gap. Kiryat Yam sit seventh with nine points, Modiin fourteenth with five. Three points separate them, and in this league that is everything. The home side will take confidence from seeing this one out, especially after the mixed results that preceded it.