Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Italy Women vs Bulgaria Women: match prediction on 31 August 2026
Italy Women
Bulgaria Women
Prediction for
Win: Italy Women
95%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
95%
1
5%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 15:04- Женская сборная Италии, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Болгария Женщины, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, Женская сборная Италии — 5, Болгария Женщины — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Italy Women
LWWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Bulgaria Women
WLWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 7
7Italy Women
0Draw
0Bulgaria Women
- 3 JunItaly Women — Bulgaria Women3:0
- 18 Jun 2025Bulgaria Women — Italy Women1:3
- 17 May 2024Italy Women — Bulgaria Women3:0
- 19 Aug 2023Bulgaria Women — Italy Women0:3
- 14 Jun 2023Italy Women — Bulgaria Women3:0
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 15:04Italy Women are expected to win this match. The model expects 3.5 sets for the hosts against 0.6 for Bulgaria, and the historical record is unambiguous: Italy has won all six encounters, with Bulgaria failing to take a set in five of those matches.
Italy's recent form reinforces that assessment. In their last five matches they have won four, conceding just three sets across all those games. Four of those victories came 3:0, with only the loss to France disrupting the pattern. All five matches were played at home, and the team has been dominant in every competition they have entered.
Bulgaria's record tells a different story. The three defeats were all 0:3, including losses to Czech Republic and Serbia. Every match played away from home ended in defeat, and the team has conceded twice as many sets as they have scored.
The head-to-head record leaves no room for doubt. Italy has won all six encounters, with Bulgaria failing to take a set in five of those matches. The only exception was the 1:3 loss at home in June 2025, where Bulgaria managed to claim one set in a Nations League fixture where they had home advantage. The model expects another clean sweep.
Bulgaria would need to win a set to change the prediction. Given that they have failed to do so in five of six meetings, that would require a significant shift in performance. The model's expectation of 0.6 sets for Bulgaria suggests such an outcome is unlikely, but one set won would change the dynamic entirely.
The expected sets figure of 3.5 for Italy means the side most often wins three sets, occasionally four. Bulgaria's 0.6 sets indicates they are expected to lose every match without taking a set in the majority of simulated versions. The draw probability of 0% points in the same direction — Italy wins all three sets, Bulgaria does not score either.
The head-to-head record is overwhelming. The only variable would be if Bulgaria can somehow replicate the performance from June 2025, but even then they lost 1:3.
65%