Italy Women vs Sweden Women: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Italy Women to win, 75%. The model expects five goals from the hosts and less than half a goal from Sweden, and the head-to-head record shows Italy has not lost to Sweden in three meetings.

Italy's recent run includes three victories in five matches, with goals at 10:6. The 3:0 win over Bulgaria on 31 August and the 3:0 victory against Greece two days earlier demonstrate consistency in attack. The 0:3 loss to Turkey on 30 August is the only blemish in an otherwise strong showing.

Sweden have won two and lost three in their last five outings, scoring 9 and conceding 11. The 3:0 away win at Czech Republic on 31 August was their only clean sheet in this period. They lost 1:3 to France on both 27 August and 31 August, and dropped points against Croatia and Slovakia at home.

The head-to-head record is entirely one-sided. Italy won all three meetings over the past two years, including a 3:0 victory at Sweden on 23 August and two 3:0 wins at home in May 2024. Sweden have not claimed a point in any of these encounters.

The model projects 5.4 expected goals for Italy and 0.4 for Sweden. It assigns 0% probability to a draw and 0% to both teams scoring. These figures suggest Italy will control the match and Sweden will struggle to create meaningful chances.

This prediction stops holding if Sweden find a way to disrupt Italy's rhythm in the opening period. A strong start from the visitors could change the dynamic, though the head-to-head record and model expectations make that outcome unlikely.