Serbia Women — Croatia Women: match prediction

Serbia Women are heavy favourites here, and the numbers back it up: they have won three of five, Croatia only one, and Serbia have taken both meetings in the last three years.

The gap in results is stark. Serbia sit on 9 points from their last five games—three wins, two losses—while Croatia have managed just 3 points from one victory and four defeats. All four of Croatia's losses came away from home, and three of those were 2:3 results, suggesting they are competitive but cannot hold on. Serbia's two losses were against Ukraine and Italy, both 0:3, which points to a different kind of vulnerability against higher-ranked opposition.

In the head-to-head, Serbia are unambiguous. Croatia have not beaten Serbia in any competition, and the pattern of narrow away defeats in their recent run—Montenegro, Sweden, Slovakia—mirrors what happened in 2022. The model expects Serbia to score 2.5 goals and Croatia 1.3, which translates to a match where Serbia control the tempo and Croatia struggle to find space.

The 0% probability for a draw and 0% for both teams scoring may look extreme, but Croatia's four consecutive away losses, three of them 2:3, suggest they are unlikely to produce a surprise result. Serbia's two recent defeats came against stronger sides, which makes their form more credible than the raw win-loss record implies.

Croatia's only victory in this stretch was 3:0 away against Italy, a result that sits alongside four narrow defeats. They travel to Serbia with no home advantage and a record of four straight losses. Serbia, meanwhile, have shown they can dominate weaker opposition—3:0 against Greece and Bulgaria—and have the confidence of a two-match winning streak in this fixture. The model expects a comfortable win, and the data does not contradict that.

This conclusion stops working if Croatia find a way to contain Serbia's attack. A 0:0 or 1:1 would require Croatia to defend deeper and pick up a point from an away game they have not managed in four attempts. A surprise result would also depend on Serbia underperforming their expected goals, which would be unusual given their recent form against comparable opponents.