The Nationals beat the Mets 4-3 in a regular-season MLB fixture on September 25th, 2026. It was a game that refused to settle for long stretches, with momentum shifting back and forth. By then, both sides had made their statements about the season's closing stages.
We had given the Mets the edge on confidence, 66 per cent, backing them to come away with victory. The prediction didn't hold up, and here's the thing — it's hard to see how it could have when the Nationals found a way to grind out runs when it mattered most. The forecast link sits at /ru/baseball/prediction/nationals-mets-2026-09-26-10096/ for those who want to revisit it.
The Nationals arrived on the back of mixed results, winning two of their last five while dropping three. They had battered the Tigers 4-2 and 3-1 in consecutive games, then lost that heavy 2-9 defeat before bouncing back with an 8-5 win over the Cardinals. To be fair, that pattern of peaks and valleys is exactly what you'd expect from a team navigating the final month of a season.
The Mets had been more inconsistent in their recent run, splitting results against the Rangers and Phillies. They lost 1-3 to the Rangers before winning 7-2 and 6-3 in the next two meetings, then saw that form collapse with a 2-7 loss to the Phillies before a 10-3 victory. They showed they could score in bunches, but holding it together over nine innings proved the harder task.
What this means is the Nationals stay within striking distance at home, while the Mets' road struggles continue to add up. Four wins and three losses in their last five games for the hosts, compared to three wins and two losses for the visitors. The margin of one run wasn't elegant, but it was enough.
