Mets vs Phillies: match prediction on 18 September 2026

Mets edge it at 55% confidence. The model places them slightly ahead in expected runs (4.5 to 4.2) and assigns zero probability to a draw. That margin is narrow, and the confidence reflects it.

Metropolitan slump

The Mets have lost four of their last five matches. They lost to the Orioles at home 1:7, 5:7 and 1:2. Before that they lost 0:2 away to the Yankees. The only bright spot was the 12:2 victory over the same opponent on 12 September. Their run tally in this stretch sits at 19 scored against 20 conceded.

Philadelphia's mixed results

The Phillies have won two and lost three in their last five games. They beat the Nationals 3:0 on 16 September after losing 3:6 to the same side the previous day. Earlier in the week they won 9:4 against the Braves but lost 2:12 and 5:6 in other meetings. Their runs: 22 scored, 28 conceded.

Model expectations

The simulation expects both teams to score, though the probability is listed at 0% — the data clashes. What is clear is the expectation of runs: 4.5 for the Mets, 4.2 for the Phillies. Three or more runs in the match is also assigned 0% probability, which again conflicts with the individual team totals. The model's draw probability is zero, which is the basis for the Mets selection.

When the conclusion breaks

The pick stands only if those run totals hit.