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Nationals vs Angels: match prediction on 11 September 2026

MLB Nationals Park Washington, D.C. Miss Match page
Nationals Angels

Prediction for

Win: Angels

58%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

42% 1
58% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 10 Sep, 00:02

Angels to win. They have taken nine wins from ten games while their opponents have managed none, and the model gives them expected runs (xR) 4.2 to 3.7.

The Nationals are on a five-game losing streak. They have lost five straight, conceding 30 runs while scoring 18.

The Angels are in better shape. They beat the Red Sox 6:4 and 6:1 on 9 and 8 September, lost 2:5 to the Red Sox on 7 September, dropped 0:1 to the Pirates on 6 September, and won 6:1 against the Pirates on 5 September. That is 3 wins and 2 losses, with 20 runs scored and 12 conceded.

The model's run expectations reflect the gap in form. Nationals 3.7, Angels 4.2. Those are averages across many simulated versions of the match, not a prediction of the exact score. The Angels are most likely to score two or three runs, the Nationals one or two as well, but the Angels' higher ceiling comes from their recent attacking output.

A draw suits neither side, and the model gives that outcome 0% probability. The Angels win if they convert their xR edge. A tight game where the Nationals' defence holds could flip the result.

65% win probability.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 10 Sep, 00:02
  • Националс, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
  • Энджелс, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Nationals LWWWL 3 wins · 2 losses
Angels LLLWW 2 wins · 3 losses

Head to head 2

2Nationals 0Draw 0Angels
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

No bookmaker data

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+