Aistes LSU Kaunas Women vs RSU Merks Women: match prediction on 14 October 2026

RSU Merks Women to win. The visitors have dominated this fixture historically, taking four of the last six meetings, and they arrive with momentum after beating Liepajas Papirs/LSSS 75:62 away on 7 October. Both sides have identical records of one win and four defeats in their last five outings, but RSU Merks' most recent result carries more weight — a convincing victory against a fellow contender, whereas Aistes LSU Kaunas lost 65:81 to Rokiskis on 11 October.

Form and frustration

Aistes LSU Kaunas have scored 340 goals and conceded 399 across their last five matches, a differential that tells you everything about their season. Their lone victory came 95:92 away at TTT Riga Women Juniores — a high-scoring affair that ended in a three-point margin. The other four matches all ended in defeat, including a 52:75 home loss to Liepajas Papirs/LSSS and a 56:73 home defeat to LCC. They cannot afford another slip at home.

RSU Merks have been similarly inconsistent, scoring 299 and conceding 389 in five games. Their win came 75:62 away at Liepajas Papirs/LSSS, but they have also lost 75:87 at home to Rokiskis, 58:85 away at TTT Riga Women, 36:77 at home against TTT Riga, and 55:78 away to Neptūnas Klaipėda. The pattern is the same — they can compete, but consistency eludes them.

The visitors' edge

RSU Merks have won four of the last six meetings between these sides. Their most recent encounter ended 65:56 in Riga on 28 February 2026, and before that they won 77:70 at home in February 2023 and 67:58 at home in November 2023. Aistes LSU Kaunas have only managed victories in January 2024 (78:58) and November 2025 (57:54). The visitors have the psychological advantage and know how to close out tight games.

The model expects RSU Merks to score 66 points while Aistes LSU Kaunas will manage 68.1. That narrow margin — just two points — suggests a close contest, but the historical record tips the balance toward the away side. A draw has zero probability according to the model, and both teams to score is also listed at zero, which in basketball terms means neither side will completely shut the other out.

A win for RSU Merks stops holding if Aistes LSU Kaunas find their shooting touch early. They have shown they can score 95 points in a single game, and if they replicate that output against a visitors' defence that has conceded 87, 85, 77 and 78 points in various matches, the home side could turn this into a high-scoring affair they win. The visitors have also conceded heavily at home — 87 points to Rokiskis and 77 to TTT Riga Women — and if Aistes LSU Kaunas get in behind quickly, the game opens up in their favour.