Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Atlanta Dream Women vs Connecticut Sun Women: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Atlanta Dream Women
Connecticut Sun Women
Prediction for
Win: Atlanta Dream Women
62%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
62%
1
38%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 00:33- Атланта Дрим (жен.) — 1. place, 0 points after 40 games (26 wins, 14 losses)
- Коннектикут Сан (женская) — 7. place, 0 points after 40 games (10 wins, 30 losses)
- Атланта Дрим (жен.), last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Коннектикут Сан (женская), last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 15 games, Атланта Дрим (жен.) — 8, Коннектикут Сан (женская) — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Atlanta Dream Women
WWWWW
5 wins
Connecticut Sun Women
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 22
9Atlanta Dream Women
0Draw
13Connecticut Sun Women
- 14 AugConnecticut Sun Women — Atlanta Dream Women69:104
- 3 JunAtlanta Dream Women — Connecticut Sun Women91:75
- 11 Sep 2025Connecticut Sun Women — Atlanta Dream Women72:88
- 9 Sep 2025Atlanta Dream Women — Connecticut Sun Women87:62
- 7 Jun 2025Connecticut Sun Women — Atlanta Dream Women84:76
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 00:33Atlanta Dream Women to win on 17 September with 72% confidence. The hosts lead the table after 40 matches while the visitors sit seven places below them, and Atlanta have won four of the last six meetings between these sides. The model projects 88.7 points for the Dream against 75.3 for Connecticut, a gap that reflects the disparity in recent form and league position.
Atlanta have won four of their last five games, scoring 473 points while conceding 430 across that span. Their most recent outing saw them beat Minnesota 89:81 at home before a heavy defeat to Portland 83:101. They have shown they can score freely, with that 124:88 victory over Los Angeles Sparks in August demonstrating their offensive ceiling. The Dream sit top of the standings with 26 wins from 40 matches.
Their only loss in that period came against Portland 83:101, but since then they have beaten Chicago Sky 87:81 at home, dropped 64:89 to Golden State Valkyries, 91:111 to Indiana Fever, and 71:97 to Dallas Wings. Connecticut have 10 wins from 40 matches and face a side that has beaten them convincingly in their last two encounters, including a 104:69 victory on 13 August.
Head-to-head record
The Dream have won four of the last six meetings, with the two most recent victories coming by 21 and 35 points respectively. Connecticut's last win over Atlanta came in June 2025, and Connecticut must limit transition opportunities to stay within range.
The model's expected points of 88.7 for Atlanta and 75.3 for Connecticut suggest a margin around 13 points, though the 0% probability for a draw indicates the model expects a straightforward victory. The pick fails if Connecticut can match Atlanta's shooting efficiency from their 124-point game against Los Angeles Sparks, or if the Dream's defence, which has allowed 101 points to Portland, continues to leak baskets at that rate.