Australia — Jordan: match prediction

Australia are heavy favourites against Jordan on Sunday, and the data leaves little room for doubt. The model puts their chance at 65%, and everything I can see supports that reading.

Australia have run through their last five games without a single loss. They beat Syria 123:64 away, edged New Zealand 79:77 on the road, then won 84:79 at home against the same side. Before that came a tight 90:89 victory over China and a 92:48 demolition of Iran. That is 15 points from 15 available, with a scoring margin of 111 across those five matches. Their form has been relentless.

Jordan's record tells a different story. Two wins and three losses in their last five outings. They lost 81:82 to the Philippines at home, then bounced back with two wins against Syria — 100:48 away and 74:59 at home. Those were followed by defeats to Chinese Taipei 64:78 and China 68:90, both away. They have scored 387 points and conceded 357, but the inconsistency is clear. They can beat anyone on their day, but they also lose to teams they should be beating.

Their only meeting came in July 2022 at the FIBA Asia Cup, when Jordan hosted and lost 60:78. That was four years ago, and neither side has looked the same since. Australia's dominance in that fixture is historical, but it is not a guarantee of what happens today. The gap between these teams has only widened since then.

The model expects Australia to score 86.3 points and Jordan 73.8. It gives zero probability for a draw, zero for both teams scoring, and zero for three or more scoring events. Those numbers are not predictions of exact scores — they are averages from thousands of simulated matches. The spread of 12.5 points suggests Australia should control the game from start to finish.

I am backing Australia to win, and I am putting confidence in that at 65%. The reading stops working if Jordan hits early from three-point range and Australia cannot adjust. If the hosts find their rhythm in the first quarter and Australia's defence falls apart, the model's expectations shift. But based on what I have, Australia take this comfortably.