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70%
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Bahcesehir Kol. vs Pinar Karsiyaka: match prediction on 10 October 2026
Bahcesehir Kol.
Pinar Karsiyaka
Prediction for
Win: Bahcesehir Kol.
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
57%
1
43%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Oct, 11:05- Бахчешехир, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Пинар Каршияка, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Бахчешехир — 3, Пинар Каршияка — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Bahcesehir Kol.
WWWWW
5 wins
Pinar Karsiyaka
WLWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 11
4Bahcesehir Kol.
0Draw
7Pinar Karsiyaka
- 18 AprBahcesehir Kol. — Pinar Karsiyaka74:88
- 20 Dec 2025Pinar Karsiyaka — Bahcesehir Kol.71:74
- 6 Oct 2024Bahcesehir Kol. — Pinar Karsiyaka82:68
- 30 Mar 2024Pinar Karsiyaka — Bahcesehir Kol.92:76
- 1 Dec 2023Bahcesehir Kol. — Pinar Karsiyaka85:93
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Oct, 11:05Bahcesehir Kol. are expected to win against Pinar Karsiyaka on Saturday, with the home side's four victories from five matches and the model's output of 83.2 to 79.2 pointing to a comfortable margin. Confidence sits at 65%.
The hosts have been dominant at home, winning both recent fixtures at their arena. They beat Bc Roma 91:78 in the EuroCup and Fenerbahce 98:83 in the Super Ligi, scoring 189 points across those two games while conceding 161. The only blemish in their last five came away to Beşiktaş 71:80 in June, but since then they have not dropped points at home.
Pinar Karsiyaka have mixed results on the road. They lost at Türk Telekom 72:73 in September but beat Galatasaray 78:71 at home in October. Their away record in May saw them fall to Tofas Bursa 78:87. The visitors have scored exactly as many points as they have conceded across their last five matches — 380 apiece — suggesting they struggle to impose themselves away from home.
The head-to-head is evenly balanced at three wins each over the last six meetings, but the recent encounter on 18 April went to Pinar Karsiyaka 88:74 at Bahcesehir Kol.'s venue. Before that, the hosts won 82:68 in October 2024. The pattern shows Bahcesehir have been competitive at home, and the April result suggests Pinar Karsiyaka can win on the road when they execute well.
The model projects Bahcesehir Kol. to outscore their opponents by roughly four points, with the draw probability listed at 0%. The hosts' offensive output in recent games — averaging 89 points per match across their last five — aligns with the 83.2 expectation. Pinar Karsiyaka's defensive vulnerabilities away from home, including the 73:72 loss at Türk Telekom, make the 79.2 projection optimistic.
Only a draw would change the prediction, though the model assigns zero probability to that outcome. If Pinar Karsiyaka replicate their away form from April — when they won 88:74 — the margin could disappear entirely. The visitors have shown they can compete, but consistency away from home remains the question.
Bahcesehir Kol. Kol. to win
Confidence: 65%