Belgium Women vs Australia Women: match prediction on 7 September 2026

Belgium Women are the pick to beat Australia Women on 7 September, and the 94% confidence sits on their home advantage and the scoring patterns that have emerged in their last five games. Australia have won every match they have played this month, but the model expects Belgium to dominate the points on the board.

The hosts have won four of their last five outings, losing only 67-95 away to Spain on 23 August. Their other results show a team capable of scoring freely: 89-75 against Turkey at home, 89-85 over Japan at home, 78-77 against Japan at home, and 76-64 away to Puerto Rico. They have scored 399 points in those five games and conceded 396, a margin that suggests they can hold their own in attack even when the game opens up.

Australia have gone five from five, winning all five matches they have played. They beat Turkey 87-71 away and Puerto Rico 70-54 at home. They have scored 387 points and conceded 333, a tighter defensive record than Belgium. Their recent form is flawless, but the away fixture in Belgium changes the calculus.

The head-to-head record does not favour Belgium. The visitors have proven they can win here before.

The model expects Belgium to score 120 points and Australia 85. The draw probability sits at 0%, both sides to score under 85.5 at 0%, and three quarters under 40 points at 0%. These figures come from the teams' historical scoring and conceding patterns, not from the current squad news or the fixture list.

Australia must control the tempo from the opening tip to disrupt the model. They have shown they can beat stronger sides by grinding out results, as seen in their 77-74 win over Turkey away on 15 March. If they limit Belgium's scoring opportunities and keep the game low-scoring, the model's expectations shift. Belgium need to impose their pace early and not let Australia settle into a defensive rhythm.