Chicago Sky Women vs Washington Mystics Women: match prediction on 18 September 2026

Washington Mystics win, 51% confidence. The visitors have dominated this fixture for years — 11 victories in 13 meetings — and carry the better record in the standings after 40 matches. Chicago sit fifth with 15 wins and 25 losses, Washington fourth with 24 wins and 16. The model puts Washington slightly ahead at 82.4 to 81.6, and the form gap is wider than the numbers suggest.

Chicago's recent slide

Chicago have lost three of their last five matches, scoring 403 points while conceding 441. Their only wins came at home against Golden State Valkyries 73-70 and New York Liberty Women 93-86. The other three outings all ended in defeat — 66-85 away at New York, 81-87 away at Connecticut, and 90-113 at home against Indiana. The away record in particular has been poor, with two losses on the road in their last three games.

Washington's away strength

Washington have won three of their last five matches, scoring 445 points to 439 conceded. They beat Phoenix twice on the road — 80-73 and 94-84 — and edged Portland 105-100 away. Their only recent losses came against Los Angeles Sparks 82-88 and home defeat to Minnesota Lynx 84-94.

The history between them

Washington have won four of the last five meetings. They beat Chicago 90-72 at home on 2 June 2026, and 81-79 on 8 July 2025. Chicago's only win in that span came at home on 6 August 2025, 78-64. The other meetings all went to Washington — 103-86 and 72-79 in 2025, and 58-89 in September 2024. The visitors have not lost to Chicago at their own venue since August 2025.

What breaks the prediction

Washington have won 11 of 13 meetings, but the model shows a tight margin at 82.4 to 81.6. The confidence drops to 51% because the model sees a narrow gap, not a runaway result. Chicago average 69.1 points over their last 10 matches while Washington average 65.8