China vs Iran: match prediction on 20 September 2026

China are the clear favourites to win this Asian Games encounter, and the data behind that conclusion is hard to ignore. They have beaten Iran in both recent meetings, they are in better form, and the model expects them to score nearly 16 points more.

China have won four of their last five matches, losing only to Japan 78:97 on 18 September. Their other results read like a procession: 105:61 over Philippines, 105:59 against Bahrain, 99:61 versus Kazakhstan, and 87:78 against Saudi Arabia. Iran, by contrast, have three wins and two losses from five games, including a heavy 51:77 defeat to South Korea and a narrow 53:59 loss at home to Qatar.

Simulations project an 80.8–65 split, an average across thousands of fixtures, not a single-game forecast. The draw probability sits at 0%, and the chance of both sides covering the spread is also 0%. The model sees a one-sided affair, and the recent results back that view. China have scored 474 points in five games — an average of 94.8 per match — while Iran have managed 336, averaging 67.2.

Prediction: China win by 15–20 points.