China Women vs France Women: match prediction on 10 September 2026

France Women victory, 78-71

France have taken twelve points from ten in their last five. Their scoring output has been overwhelming — 111 points against Nigeria, 99 against Hungary, 95 against South Korea — while China have been more modest, averaging around 70 points across their own run of three wins and two defeats.

The head-to-head record tells the story. France have won five of the six meetings going back to 2022, with the margins varying from six points to thirty-two. The most recent encounter ended 93-76 in Paris, and before that France won 82-50 at the Olympics. China's sole victory came in 2022, a 85-71 win, but that was nearly four years ago.

The bookmakers price France at 1.45. France are projected to score 78.9 points, China 72.5. Bookmakers price the draw at zero; the sides have never shared the points in six meetings. The expected output suggests a comfortable margin for the visitors, though not an overwhelming one.

France's statistical profile in their last three matches shows they shoot better from the field (63.67% versus China's 59.5%), distribute the ball more effectively (26.67 assists compared to 17), and create significantly more from distance (33.67 three-pointers to 19). China's defensive rebounding is marginally stronger, but France's offensive versatility gives them more ways to break down a defence.

China beat Puerto Rico 75-72. If they slow the pace and cut transition chances, the gap narrows.