Chinese Taipei Women vs China Women: match prediction on 26 September 2026

China Women are the clear favourites to win this Asian Games clash, and the gap is so vast that only a catastrophic collapse would prevent them from doing so.

The model expects China to score 183.7 points while Chinese Taipei manage just 25.4. That is not a close contest. It is a mismatch on paper, and the head-to-head record tells the same story. China won both previous meetings by large margins — 104:60 in the 2023 Asian Games and 124:50 in the 2021 FIBA Asia Cup.

Both sides have identical records in their last five matches: three wins, two losses, no draws. Chinese Taipei have scored 368 points and conceded 350, while China have scored 451 and conceded 325. The difference is not in wins and losses but in the scale of the results. China's victories have been dominant, their defeats narrow. Chinese Taipei's wins have been respectable, their losses heavy.

China's last three matches show an average of 59 field goals, 20.33 three-pointers, and 19.67 assists per game. They grab 32.67 rebounds and commit 13.67 turnovers. These are not figures for a team that struggles to create opportunities. They are figures for a side that generates them in volume.

The model gives a 0% chance of a draw. That is not a suggestion — it is a calculation. Chinese Taipei's expected output of 25.4 points is so far below China's 183.7 that the probability of equality is effectively zero. The only scenario where this conclusion fails is if China fail to show up entirely, but there is no evidence of that in their recent results.