Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Connecticut Sun Women vs Minnesota Lynx Women: match prediction on 20 September 2026
Connecticut Sun Women
Minnesota Lynx Women
Prediction for
Win: Minnesota Lynx Women
60%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
40%
1
60%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 18:04- Коннектикут Сан (женская) — 7. place, 0 points after 41 games (10 wins, 31 losses)
- Миннесота Линкс Женщины — 1. place, 0 points after 40 games (31 wins, 9 losses)
- Коннектикут Сан (женская), last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Миннесота Линкс Женщины, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 20 games, Коннектикут Сан (женская) — 10, Миннесота Линкс Женщины — 10
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Connecticut Sun Women
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Minnesota Lynx Women
LLWLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 26
15Connecticut Sun Women
0Draw
11Minnesota Lynx Women
- 9 JulConnecticut Sun Women — Minnesota Lynx Women80:86
- 7 JulMinnesota Lynx Women — Connecticut Sun Women89:90
- 31 Aug 2025Connecticut Sun Women — Minnesota Lynx Women70:94
- 30 Jun 2025Minnesota Lynx Women — Connecticut Sun Women102:63
- 24 May 2025Minnesota Lynx Women — Connecticut Sun Women76:70
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 18:04Minnesota Lynx Women to Win
The model expects Minnesota Lynx Women to score 86.3 points against Connecticut Sun Women's 74.9, and that gap of 11.4 points tells the story. Connecticut are bottom-half with just 10 wins from 41 matches, while Minnesota lead the table with 31 victories. The visitors have been inconsistent lately, losing three of their last five, but they still carry the league's best record and the statistical edge. I see Minnesota winning, but only if they don't repeat their recent pattern of closing games poorly.
Confidence: 70%
Connecticut's recent form has been catastrophic. They've won just one of their last five matches, losing by margins of 25, 26, 20, 25, and four points respectively. Their last eight matches show only two victories,. The 59-103 loss to Atlanta on 17 September was particularly humiliating, and the 91-111 defeat at Indiana followed a similar pattern of offensive impotence.
Minnesota have been more unpredictable. They've won four of their last eight matches, including victories over Washington and two different Valkyries fixtures, but they've also lost to New York, Atlanta, and Golden State. Their last five show three defeats, yet they still sit top of the standings. The Lynx average 86.3 points according to the model, which accounts for their offensive capabilities even if recent results haven't fully reflected that potential.
The head-to-head record is remarkably even—20 matches played with 10 wins each. Recent meetings show Minnesota winning 86-80 in July 2026 and 94-70 in August 2025, while Connecticut managed an 89-90 victory at home in July 2026. These results suggest competitive games, but the model's expectation of a comfortable margin for Minnesota indicates the visitors should edge this one despite the historical parity.
The model gives no probability for a draw, which aligns with basketball where overtime is rare. Connecticut would need to significantly improve their shooting efficiency or Minnesota would need to continue their recent defensive vulnerabilities for this prediction to fail. Given Connecticut's 10-31 season record and their inability to score consistently, I don't expect a turnaround performance.