Volleyligaen Women
Prediction for Farum Women — Aalborg Volley Women
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Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 1
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 13 Oct, 17:05Desna Bryansk are the favourites here. They beat Rusichi Kursk 98:85 away in September and have the home court advantage again. The visitors have not won at this venue in seven years, and Desna's recent form shows they can close out tight games. I see Desna winning by 6-12 points.
Desna have been difficult to beat at this arena. Rusichi have struggled on the road. They lost 85:98 to Desna away in September and have not managed a road victory in their last three away fixtures.
The form tables look identical on paper. Desna and Rusichi both have two wins and three losses from their last five matches, both sitting on 6 points. But the quality of opposition differs. Desna's victories came against Magnitogorsk and Rusichi themselves. Rusichi's wins were against University-Ugra and Khimki-Podmoskovie. Desna lost to Magnitogorsk 63:53 at home but won 98:85 away against Rusichi — a 13-point swing between those two fixtures.
Desna average 71.2 points per game from 356 scored in five matches. Rusichi average 73.6 from 368. The difference is marginal. Desna have conceded 384 points (76.8 per game), Rusichi 390 (78.0 per game). Both sides have defensive vulnerabilities. Neither side has shown consistency in controlling games.
The 18 September meeting in the Russian Cup is the most relevant comparison. Desna won 98:85 away at Kursk. That performance showed Desna can execute a game plan on the road. The visitors will need to match that intensity from the opening tip.
This prediction stops holding if Rusichi find their shooting touch early. They scored 81 points against University-Ugra at home on 5 October and 66 against Khimki-Podmoskovie in the Cup. If they can replicate either of those outputs against Desna's defence, the home side's advantage evaporates.