Gunma Crane Thunders vs Altiri Chiba: match prediction on 26 September 2026

Gunma Crane Thunders to win. The model projects them 27 points ahead—91.1 to 64.1—and the head-to-head backs that up: three straight victories over Altiri Chiba, including a 76-74 win on 24 September that came just two days ago.

Gunma have collected 9 points from their last 5 games, Altiri 3. The visitors lost four of their five and managed only one away victory this season, a 87-85 win over Sun Rockers Shibuya on 26 April. Gunma's only blemishes were two defeats to Chiba sides on 11 May and 10 May, but those came away from home. Their last five games have produced 397 points for and 385 against, a slight positive differential that suggests consistency rather than volatility.

Altiri Chiba have not beaten Gunma Crane Thunders in any of the three recorded meetings. The 84-59 defeat at home on 1 April was particularly one-sided, and the 79-88 loss away on 5 November followed the same pattern. Since then Gunma have won both encounters, including the 76-74 narrow win on 24 September where Altiri failed by just two points despite shooting 87-85 in their previous outing. The visitors average 86.8 points against over their last 10 matches, a number that does not improve when facing a side averaging 79.4.

The projection is clear: Gunma 91.1, Altiri 64.1. The draw probability sits at 0%, meaning no draw is possible. Altiri's defensive rebounding average of 25.1 and 3.5 blocks per game are not enough to offset Gunma's 63.2 field goal percentage and 21.0 assists. The visitors average 67.9 field goals but concede 86.8 points.

A win for Gunma stops holding if Altiri shoot above 40% from three-point range, which would require roughly 14 made shots given their 10.0 average. The visitors would also need to hold Gunma below 80 points, something they have not managed in any of the three head-to-head meetings. Early foul trouble could shift momentum, but the data shows Gunma have not relied on any single player to carry them.