Volleyligaen Women
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Prediction for Farum Women — Aalborg Volley Women
70%
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Independiente Neuquen Women vs El Bigua Women: match prediction on 11 October 2026
Independiente Neuquen Women
El Bigua Women
Prediction for
Win: Independiente Neuquen Women
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
59%
1
41%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Oct, 22:05- Индепендиенте Нэукен Уимен, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Эль-Бигуа (жен.), last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Индепендиенте Нэукен Уимен — 1, Эль-Бигуа (жен.) — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Independiente Neuquen Women
WLWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
El Bigua Women
LWWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 3
1Independiente Neuquen Women
0Draw
2El Bigua Women
- 5 FebIndependiente Neuquen Women — El Bigua Women74:79
- 26 Nov 2025Independiente Neuquen Women — El Bigua Women55:45
- 8 Oct 2025El Bigua Women — Independiente Neuquen Women75:72
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Oct, 22:05Independiente Neuquen Women are predicted to win. The model expects 70.5 points for the hosts against 64.9 for El Bigua, and with a 0% probability of a draw, the home side holds the advantage. The prediction changes if El Bigua can replicate their away performance from February, when they won 79-74 here.
Independiente have been inconsistent. Their last five matches produced two wins and three losses, accumulating six points. They beat Rocamora 80-58 at home and El Talar 78-68 away, but lost to Berazategui 58-65 at home, Obras Sanitarias 62-84 away, and most recently El Bigua 74-79 at home. The home loss to El Bigua is the most recent data point.
El Bigua have won three of their last five matches, giving them nine points, including victories over Rocamora 73-64 at home and Berazategui 68-64 at home. Their defeats came away to Obras Sanitarias 62-89 and away to El Talar 60-73. The away form is concerning, but they proved they can win here on 5 February.
The head-to-head record shows three meetings. El Bigua won the most recent 79-74 in February, Independiente won 55-45 in November, and El Bigua won 75-72 in October. El Bigua have taken two of the three encounters, though the November result was the most one-sided. The February game suggests this fixture can go either way.
The model's point projections are the clearest signal. 70.5 expected points for Independiente versus 64.9 for El Bigua indicates the hosts should edge this contest. The 0% draw probability rules out a stalemate, and the model sees no reason for El Bigua to outscore the home side.
A draw would suit El Bigua, and given how they tend to manage games on the road, that is the main threat to this prediction. If they can control the tempo and avoid the heavy defeats they suffered away to Obras Sanitarias and El Talar, the result could flip. Independiente would need to match the intensity they showed against Rocamora, when they won by 22 points at home.
The model also shows 0% probability of both teams scoring and 0% for three or more goals. The spread between the projections is 5.6 points, enough for Independiente to win comfortably but not by a large margin.