Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Italy Women vs Australia Women: match prediction on 9 September 2026
Italy Women
Australia Women
Prediction for
Win: Italy Women
52%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
52%
1
48%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 23:29- Италия, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Австралия (жен.), last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Italy Women
WWLLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Australia Women
WWLWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 23:29Preview: Italy Women face Australia Women in FIBA World Cup clash
The Italy Women and Australia Women meet on Wednesday, 9 September 2026, in a FIBA World Cup Women fixture starting at 18:45 UTC. A win locks in a quarter-final berth. The model projects 68.1–66.5; a tie in regulation triggers overtime.
Australia’s attacking edge
Australia Women enter the encounter with a superior record, including a 77-74 win away to Turkey in March and a 70-54 home victory against Puerto Rico in September. They shoot 48% from the floor and grab 35 boards, but foul trouble (16.6 per game) keeps them honest.
Italy’s defensive resilience
Italy Women have shown capacity to compete against high-level opposition, having beaten France 75-72 in a friendly and Czech Republic 63-54 in World Cup action. In their last two World Cup matches they have averaged 55 field goal attempts, making 19, alongside 11 assists and 32.5 rebounds. They also commit 13 turnovers and draw 17 personal fouls per game.
What the numbers suggest
The statistical model assigns no probability to a draw or both sides hitting their projected point totals, yet expects the point differential to be minimal. Australia’s higher assist and three-point conversion rates give them a structural advantage, while Italy’s lower turnover count offers a pathway to stay within reach.