Kyoto Hannaryz vs Shiga: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Kyoto Hannaryz to win. The hosts have dominated this fixture historically and carry a slight edge in recent form, while Shiga's away struggles and defensive vulnerabilities make an upset unlikely.

Recent results show Kyoto Hannaryz outperforming their visitors. In their last five matches the hosts secured two victories against three defeats, scoring 415 points while conceding 422. Their most recent outing was a comfortable 84:63 win away at Nagasaki on 3 May, following a 94:105 loss in the game before that. Shiga's record is poorer by comparison: one win and four losses in their last five, with 373 points for and 423 against. Their sole victory came 88:81 at home against Sun Rockers Shibuya on 2 May, a game they followed with back-to-back defeats to Alvark.

The head-to-head record heavily favours Kyoto Hannaryz. Across ten meetings over recent years the hosts have won seven times to Shiga's three. In the last six encounters Kyoto has taken four victories while Shiga has claimed two. The two most recent fixtures were both losses for Shiga: 72:64 and 92:71 at home in October 2025. Kyoto's last two wins came at home in May 2025, 76:71 and 88:82, showing consistency when playing on their own court.

The statistical model projects Kyoto Hannaryz to score 82.5 points against Shiga's 79.1. The probability of a draw sits at 0%, and the model gives no likelihood of both teams scoring or three or more points in total. Kyoto's shooting efficiency from distance is lower at 23.7 attempts per game compared to Shiga's 31.67, but the visitors' defensive numbers are weaker, allowing 66.0 field goal attempts per game against their own 60.5.

Their recent form outside their home arena has been particularly poor, with losses to Alvark on the road and a narrow 69:81 defeat at home to Hiroshima Dragonflies. The visitors' turnover rate of 13 per game is marginally better than Kyoto's 14, but their personal foul count of 23 is significantly higher.

This conclusion stops holding if Shiga's three-point shooting finds its range. The visitors attempt 31.67 shots from distance per game compared to Kyoto's 23.7, and their conversion rate of 9.44 makes them a genuine threat if the ball starts falling. A hot shooting night from beyond the arc could overcome Kyoto's home advantage and historical dominance in this fixture.