Pallacanestro Varese vs Trieste Pallacanestro: match prediction on 10 October 2026

Pallacanestro Varese defeated Trieste Pallacanestro 85–84 in the Italian Lega A on 10 October 2026, a one-point victory that aligned with the pre-match model expectation that both sides would score around 86 points. The result marks Varese's second win in five league games and extends their advantage in the recent head-to-head record to two wins from the last three meetings.

Form and context

Before the match Varese had won two of their last five games, scoring 382 points and conceding 440, while Trieste Pallacanestro had managed only one victory in five, with 403 points for and 422 against. The visiting side had lost four consecutive league fixtures heading into Sunday, including a 79–83 defeat away to Olimpia Milano on 27 September. Varese came into the game after a 58–85 loss in the Champions League against Murcia three days earlier, securing the narrow win.

Match figures and comparison

Average output over the previous ten matches shows Varese scoring 66.8 points per game on 46.4% field-goal accuracy, while Trieste Pallacanestro averaged 63.0 points at 46.6%. Rebounding was close, with Trieste averaging 30.3 to Varese's 29.4. The final score of 85–84 reflects the model's projection of 86.2 for Varese and 85.4 for Trieste, the model predicted a draw, but the game was decided by a single point.

Head-to-head standing

In the last six encounters between these sides Varese has won four times and Trieste Pallacanestro twice. The most recent previous meeting was on 4 April 2026, when Trieste beat Varese 90–89 away. The tally of four victories for Varese in six matches includes two wins this season, the latest coming on Sunday in a game where the margin was determined by the final possession.

Table implications