Saudi Arabia vs Indonesia: match prediction on 13 September 2026

Saudi Arabia have lost five straight, conceding 89.8 points a game.

Saudi Arabia have lost every one of their last five games, conceding 449 points while scoring 366. Their most recent result was an 80:86 defeat to Japan at home in the Asian Games on 11 September. They are averaging 73.2 points for and 89.8 against across this run.

Indonesia have won just one of their last five, that being an 80:54 home victory over Singapore on 28 August in the FIBA Asia Cup. Their last four results were defeats to Hong Kong, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, with the latter two coming in the Asian Games. They have scored 304 points and conceded 402 in this period, averaging 60.8 for and 80.4 against.

The head-to-head record runs in Saudi Arabia's favour. They beat Indonesia 86:72 in the Olympic Games on 14 August 2023, 69:67 in the World Cup on 1 July 2022 and 95:66 in the same competition on 24 February 2022. Indonesia's only victory came in the FIBA Asia Cup on 12 July 2022 when they won 80:54 in Saudi Arabia.

The model expects Saudi Arabia to score 168.3 points and Indonesia 33.2, with a 0% chance of an upset. Saudi Arabia's recent statistics show they average 58.5% field goal accuracy and 22.25 three-point attempts per game, while Indonesia manage 56% accuracy with 21 three-point attempts.

This conclusion stops holding if Indonesia can replicate the form they showed against Singapore, where they scored 80 points and held their opponents to 54. That result was an outlier in their recent run, and if they can produce something similar here, the margin disappears. A tight game suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.