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Porto
ABC Braga
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72%
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Saudi Arabia vs Japan: match prediction on 11 September 2026
Saudi Arabia
Japan
Prediction for
Win: Japan
58%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
42%
1
58%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 11:01- Саудовская Аравия, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Япония, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Саудовская Аравия — 1, Япония — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Saudi Arabia
LLLLL
5 losses
Japan
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 2
1Saudi Arabia
0Draw
1Japan
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 11:01Japan's 106-78 World Cup win two weeks ago sets the stage for this Asian Games clash. The visitors arrive with five straight victories and have already beaten the hosts in that meeting, while Saudi Arabia are winless in their last five outings.
Japan have not dropped a point in any of their last five games, winning all five and scoring 510 goals while conceding 335. They opened their Asian Games campaign with a 98-53 victory over Indonesia at home. Saudi Arabia, by comparison, have lost every one of their last five matches, earning zero points from a possible 15. Their most recent outing was a 66-82 defeat to South Korea in the Asian Games.
The earlier encounter in October 2023 saw Saudi Arabia edge Japan 79-74, but the current gap between them is far wider than that narrow result suggests.
Japan's shooting efficiency of 72.25% from the field compared to Saudi Arabia's 58.5% explains why the visitors have been so dominant in recent meetings.
Japan's confidence is built on five consecutive wins, including victories over South Korea twice in August and a comprehensive 123-70 demolition of Qatar.
Saudi Arabia have not won, drawn, or scored enough to compete at this level recently.