South Korea Women vs China Women: match prediction on 25 September 2026

China Women are the clear favourites. They have won every one of the five recorded meetings between the sides, including two 30-plus point victories at South Korea's home court this year, and the model projects a 71-59 win.

Both teams arrive with identical records: four wins and one defeat in their last five matches. South Korea's sole loss came 56-94 away to Germany in the World Cup; China's was a 61-90 home defeat to France. The rest have been dominant displays, with South Korea scoring 424 points and China 446 across those five games.

The head-to-head tells a consistent story. China won 101-66 and 91-69 at South Korea in the FIBA Asia Cup in July 2025, and 107-44 in the Super Cup in September 2022. The only closer result was a 87-81 victory in China in June 2023, and a 93-69 win in October 2021. South Korea have not won a meeting in this period.

The model expects 59 points for South Korea and 71 for China. It assigns 0% probability to a draw and 0% to both teams scoring — or in basketball terms, both teams reaching their expected total. Three or more point differential is also marked 0%, which suggests the model is confident in a decisive result.

A draw suits neither side, but the main threat to the China prediction is an early South Korea surge. If the hosts establish a double-digit lead within the opening ten minutes, the game dynamics shift entirely. South Korea have shown they can score heavily, averaging 84.8 points per game in their Asian Games run, and an early momentum swing could keep them in contention far longer than the model anticipates.

Conditions under which this conclusion stops holding: South Korea win by 15 points or more, or the match goes to extra time with a final result favouring the hosts.