Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Team FOG Naestved vs Holbaek: match prediction on 24 September 2026
Team FOG Naestved
Holbaek
Prediction for
Win: Team FOG Naestved
72%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
67%
1
33%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 18:11- Фог Наествед, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Хольбек, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Фог Наествед — 6, Хольбек — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Team FOG Naestved
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Holbaek
LWLLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 6
6Team FOG Naestved
0Draw
0Holbaek
- 19 FebTeam FOG Naestved — Holbaek113:93
- 9 JanHolbaek — Team FOG Naestved87:120
- 7 Dec 2025Holbaek — Team FOG Naestved92:112
- 24 Oct 2023Team FOG Naestved — Holbaek107:61
- 12 Feb 2023Holbaek — Team FOG Naestved66:108
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 18:11Home side's mixed form
Team FOG Naestved have won two of their last five matches, taking six points from a possible fifteen. They’ve won two of five, but the run was snapped by a heavy home loss to Bakken. Their scoring has been inconsistent — 436 points for and 448 against across those five games.
Visitors struggling for consistency
Holbaek have managed just one victory from five outings, collecting three points. Their only win came against Vejen 103:83 away, while losses to Randers Cimbria 84:100 at home and Amager 86:98 away. They have scored 441 points but conceded 471, a negative differential of 30.
Complete head-to-head dominance
Team FOG Naestved have won all six previous meetings, including victories of 113:93, 120:87, 112:92, 107:61, 108:66 and 115:78. The most recent encounter on 19 February 2026 ended 113:93 in the hosts' favour. Holbaek have lost every meeting on record.
Model projection
The model projects a 22.5-point margin, pricing out a draw entirely. These figures align with the one-sided nature of recent meetings between the clubs.
Conditions that would change the picture
This conclusion rests on the assumption that past patterns continue. Holbaek’s only realistic path back is grinding the clock, a tactic they’ve deployed before. If either side brings different personnel or tactical approaches, the historical data becomes less reliable.