Afghanistan vs India: match prediction on 28 September 2026

India to win. The visitors have won eleven of twelve meetings and come into this fixture on a five-match winning streak. Afghanistan's recent form—four losses in five games, including a defeat to Nepal—offers no indication they can shift the pattern.

India's momentum

India have won all five of their last matches. Their most recent outing was a 300-to-295 victory over West Indies, a tight finish that still ended in their favour. Before that they beat Japan 32-30 and then swept through three matches against Afghanistan, winning 221-94, 163-159 and 157-156. The margin in the 221-94 result is the clearest signal of where the gap currently sits between the two sides.

Afghanistan's struggle

Afghanistan sit second in the Asian Games table with two points from two matches, one win and one defeat. Their last outing was a 102-103 loss to Nepal at home. In their five most recent games they have recorded one victory, no draws and four defeats, scoring 640 runs while conceding 725. The net run rate works against them, and the loss to Nepal suggests vulnerability even when they are not facing India.

Head-to-head record

Over the past twelve meetings India have won eleven times, with one draw and zero victories for Afghanistan. The most recent six encounters, all in 2026, have gone India's way without exception. The largest margin came in a 402-232 win, but even the closest result—a 195-194 victory—ended in India's favour. Afghanistan have yet to register a win in this fixture.

Model expectations

The model projects Afghanistan 251.8 and India 141.2. The data does not support these figures given recent scores: Afghanistan's last five matches produced an average of roughly 128 runs per game, while India's average in their five wins was closer to 217. The model's run totals sit outside the range of what either side has delivered recently, and the zero percent probability for a draw or both sides scoring does not align with cricket's scoring patterns.

What would change the conclusion

A draw would break the prediction, though the model assigns that outcome zero percent. More realistically, Afghanistan would need to replicate a performance closer to their 129-81 win over Japan while India faltered below their recent average. Given India's five consecutive wins and Afghanistan's four losses in five games, that scenario is unlikely.

Final assessment

India to win. The confidence rests on their eleven victories in twelve meetings, their five-match winning streak, and Afghanistan's current form of one win and four losses in their last five games. If India drop below their recent scoring average and Afghanistan exceed their last five-match mean of 128 runs, the conclusion would no longer hold.